By Jesús Arboleya Cervera on September 17, 2020
Photo: Bill Hackwell
Every time a possible re-election of a US president approaches, the world trembles at the fear that he will invent a war in order to unify the country around his figure. This has been the most common recourse of what has been called “the October surprise” and it seems that, in the case of Donald Trump, the scenario of this convenient war will be the American territory itself.
Most specialists have identified two variables that they consider will decide the outcome of the next elections in the United States: the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences, as well as the state of public tranquility, affected by protests against racial discrimination, police abuse against minorities and street confrontations with white supremacist groups, supporters of the president.
In the face of the pandemic, Donald Trump’s policy has been to downplay its importance, despite the fact that the number of deaths exceeds 180,000 people, and he insists on pressing for economic openness, even at the risk of increasing contagion. The official discourse treats it as an outdated moment, although the specialists insist that this is not the case, and hope for a prompt solution is encouraged, thanks to the discovery of a vaccine that, by the way, the government assures that it will be available before the elections, something that the health authorities and the pharmaceutical companies themselves doubt.
Trump’s rationale for the failure of his management of the disease has been typical of his behavior. The blame lies with China, the WHO or Democratic governors. About the deaths iits better not to talk about it, and the 60 percent disapproval of his handling of the pandemic is the result of his enemies’ conspiracies. Those who are going to believe him are going to do so, and whatever happens, this must continue to be the trend, leading one to believe that you have reached the limit of his capacity for damage control in this matter.
The other alternative to reduce the margin that separates him from the Democrats is to try to exploit social tensions, considered the other fundamental variable, and set himself up as the defender of law and order. According to ACLED, a non-governmental organization that monitors conflicts around the world, since May, there have been 10,600 popular demonstrations in the United States, 73 percent associated with the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, although with significant participation from other U.S. social groups, especially white youth. Ninety-five percent of these demonstrations were peaceful, but 54 percent were suppressed by the police. There were also 360 counter-demonstrations, including some 100 by white supremacist groups, including armed militias and the KKK, which generated the highest levels of violence.
Under the excuse that these are anarchist movements, described as domestic terrorism by Donald Trump himself, a story has been constructed that tends to encourage fear in the white population and justify police repression, which in some cases has resulted in crude murders of African Americans. This is not something new, but a resource that has always been exploited by the right-wing. The problem lies in the limits that they are willing to go to by encouraging these contradictions, above all because, so far, the president’s strategy is not yielding the results that he expected.
Recent CNN/SSRS surveys indicate that Biden leads by 6 points among those who consider him more capable than Trump in maintaining the country’s internal security and by 7 points in better handling the criminal and justice system. This is therefore another variable that should not show significant change if tensions are to be maintained at current levels.
The conclusion is that the election estimates should not change significantly in the eight weeks leading up to the election, especially since the latest polls indicate that about 95 percent of potential voters have already made up their minds. However, Republicans are left with the option of reducing the number of “likely voters” at all costs, which would radically alter the election equation. As physicists would say, it would no longer be an experiment under normal temperature and pressure conditions.
It is well known that, because they are a minority on a popular scale, the Republicans always try to decrease electoral participation. All kinds of gadgets are used to achieve this purpose and this election has not been an exemption, on the contrary, it has rained the complaints of the Democrats in this regard. What is new at the moment is that the two variables indicated as fundamental tend, by themselves, to reduce the electoral participation of the people and this favors the Republicans.
The pandemic constitutes an impediment to the concurrence to the ballot boxes due to the fear of contagion, particularly among the Democrats, who are more likely to respect the measures of isolation. If Trump has not insisted on this, let us say in emphasizing the danger, it is because it may also scare off some of his co-religionists and because that logic would favor the postal vote, which he has obviously consistently opposed and tried to hinder.
But this may not be enough, and it cannot be ruled out that the Republicans will further incite domestic violence, because it would add a factor that could be decisive in going to the polls. The increase in armed gangs of white supremacists, aimed at preventing the vote in areas of high Democratic concentration, would be frightening. This is not a fantasy, we are seeing this possibility every day and the president’s attitude encourages this behavior. Rather, this could be the “surprise” that Donald Trump has in store for October, even on Election Day itself.
Such a scenario would dramatically alter the rules of the game of the American political system and place us before a reality, where current electoral calculations would lose validity. It could also have incalculable consequences since the idea of fraud for any of the groups could set the country on fire. As filmmaker Michael More has said, Donald Trump is the grenade the white supremacist right needed to throw against the system.
The US elections have never been characterized by very strict ethical standards, but they have almost always sought to safeguard the image of integrity and respect for results that the credibility and stability of the system requires. Trump has dynamited these budgets, accentuating the signs of decomposition seen in other aspects of national life.
Not only are we witnessing a degree of social polarization that makes the country’s governance difficult, but also a great lack of consensus within the ruling class. Trump, meaning something else, perhaps explains better than me: “The United States is an example to the world. We should take that into account, to calculate what can come”.
Source: Progresso Weekly, translation Resumen Latinoamericano, North America bureau